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City University
City University, in London, has said its application numbers are down 41.4% on last year. Photograph: David Levene
City University, in London, has said its application numbers are down 41.4% on last year. Photograph: David Levene

University applications from UK-born students fall 15%

This article is more than 12 years old
Drop in the number applying follows sharp increase in applications last year in attempt to beat 2012 rise in fees

The number of UK-born students who have applied to start university next year has fallen by 15%, according to official figures from the university admissions service. Autumn 2012 is when fees at many universities will rise to £9,000 a year.

The latest statistics, published by the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (Ucas), show 133,357 applicants have applied from within the UK, compared with 157,116 this time last year.

Universities and politicians have worried that the decision to almost treble tuition fees to up to £9,000 next year will deter thousands of students, particularly the poorest, from applying. Students can pay the fees with a student loan, which they start repaying when they are earning more than £21,000 a year after leaving university.

But the figures suggest that the fall in the number applying to university since last year is mostly owing to a glut of applications in 2010 in anticipation of the fees rise. In 2010, the number of applicants from within and outside the UK combined was 162,706, while the number from those born in the UK came to 139,875.

Wendy Piatt, director general of the Russell Group, which represents the UK's 20 leading universities including Oxford and Cambridge, said it was too early to predict how many students would end up at university next autumn.

She said it was unfair to compare the number of applicants for next autumn's courses with those for this year's because the previous figures may have been artificially inflated by students applying before the near-trebling of fees came into effect. "Current 2012 figures are actually very similar to figures at the same point in 2010," Piatt said.

The figures, the first to include applications received by all universities, show the fall in the number of student applying is almost three times what it was last time tuition fees trebled, in 2006.

That year, when fees rose from £1,000 to £3,000, applications fell by 4.5% for applicants from within and outside the UK. The following year, applications made a rebound of 7.1%; and two years after that, in 2009, applications were up 10%.

Sally Hunt, the general secretary of the lecturers' union the University and College Union, said the figures were very worrying. "We believe putting financial barriers in front of young people who have been told their entire lives to aim for university is nothing more than a policy of penalising ambition," she said.

Les Ebdon, the chair of Million+, which represents some of the new universities, said he was concerned at the drop in the numbers of mature students. "Many mature students study later because they realise that they have missed out on the life-changing employment and learning opportunities that studying for a degree offers," he said.

"No one should lose the chance to be what they might have been. Ministers need to up their game, and should launch a campaign in the new year to ensure that older students understand the new loan system and the opportunities available."

The latest figures do not show whether those from low-income families have been particularly deterred. However, they do show a stark drop in the number of mature students who have applied. Many of these candidates are from the least well-off homes.

The number of applicants aged between 25 and 39 has fallen by more than 20%, while the figure for those aged 40 and above is down more than 25%. The number of men who have applied has fallen by 13.2%, while the number of women has dropped by 12.7%.

The figures are broken down into applicants from the UK, those from within the European Union (but outside the UK), and those from outside the EU. The number of applicants from within the UK has fallen by 15.1%, while the number from within the EU has dropped by 13.1%. However, the number of applicants from outside the EU has risen by 11.8%.

The number of applicants aged 18 from Northern Ireland and Scotland has fallen more sharply than those of the same age from England and Wales. The proportions of applicants from Northern Ireland and Scotland have decreased by 15.2% and 12.7% respectively; those from England and Wales have fallen by 10.2% and 10.3%.

Individual universities have not revealed how their applications compare with last year, although City University, in London, has said its applications are down by 41.4% on last year.

Demographic factors could also be behind the slump in applications. The number of 18-year-olds in the UK is projected to decline over the rest of the decade by 11%.

Figures released in October, showed a 12% drop in the number of UK-born candidates who had applied to Oxford and Cambridge universities, and for courses in medicine, dentistry and veterinary medicine, for which there is an early deadline of 15 October. For all other courses and universities, the deadline is 15 January. October's figures also included candidates who had applied early for other courses.

Mary Curnock Cook, the chief executive of Ucas, said she expected "some depression of demand" because of a decline in the young population. She said it was "much too early to predict any effects from changes in tuition fees".

Liam Burns, president of the National Union of Students, said ministers needed to "completely overhaul" their plans for higher fees "before temporary chaos turns into permanent damage to our education system".

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